India’s longstanding defense collaboration with France may be entering a period of reassessment, as signals emerge that New Delhi could favor Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) over Naval Group for an upcoming submarine procurement project. The implications could be significant for the balance of defense relationships between the three nations, especially concerning the Project-75I program aimed at bolstering India’s underwater capabilities.
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Shifting Signals In India’s Defense Planning
For nearly two decades, Naval Group has maintained a strong industrial presence in India, primarily through the licensed construction of Scorpène-class submarines at Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) in Mumbai. The Franco-Indian partnership was expected to continue with the addition of three new Scorpène units, especially after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to France in July 2023. As reported by Armees.com, during that visit, a broad €6.81 billion defense deal was announced, including 26 Rafale Marine jets and what appeared to be a near-final agreement for more submarines.
Yet, when the Rafale deal was officially confirmed in April 2025, the submarine component was conspicuously absent. Since then, Indian government communications have become less consistent regarding the future of the Scorpène deal. This lack of clarity has opened the door to speculation, especially as German proposals for the Project-75I program begin to draw more attention.
Germany’s TKMS Emerges As A Contender
India’s Project-75I program seeks to add six new conventional submarines to its fleet. Reports from The Times of India and other local outlets suggest that TKMS has become a serious contender, thanks to perceived technological advantages over the French offering. These may include advancements in air-independent propulsion (AIP) and automation systems, areas where Germany is widely considered a leader.
The estimated cost of Project-75I is $8 billion, according to The Wire. The German proposal reportedly includes comprehensive technology transfers and local manufacturing, aligning with India’s “Make in India” initiative. This proposal would also engage MDL or other Indian shipyards, although concerns remain about whether local industry can manage multiple submarine programs simultaneously.
The possibility of selecting TKMS has raised strategic considerations in Berlin, Paris, and New Delhi. While no official contract has been awarded, the growing visibility of the German bid suggests a shift in defense preferences may be underway.
a decision shaped by geopolitics and urgency
India’s need to expand its underwater fleet is linked closely to regional dynamics, particularly growing competition with China in the Indian Ocean. The pace at which India can modernize its submarine force may influence its deterrence posture and operational readiness. Choosing between Naval Group and TKMS is not only a question of capabilities and cost, but also of broader geopolitical alignment.
France and India have shared a deepening strategic relationship over the last decade, including defense, space, and nuclear energy cooperation. A decision to bypass Naval Group could complicate this partnership, though it may not end it altogether. Conversely, a German contract would reflect India’s interest in diversifying its defense partners while prioritizing rapid technological gains.
